In a diary I posted recently asking just how exactly did Trump decide to assassinate a high Iranian military leader and risk war with Iran, one of the poll choices mentioned it would make Putin smile. A commenter asked what’s in it for Putin?
Putin learned from the Soviet-Afghan War; America has yet to learn from either of the Gulf Wars or our continuing presence in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc.
For a long time the US was reluctant to get involved in military adventures anywhere because of how the Vietnam War turned out. The NeoCons with their plans (PNAC) saw the collapse of the Soviet Empire as the golden opportunity for America - as the last superpower left standing - to use its military power to dominate the world, spreading ‘democracy’ while also making the Very Serious People behind it all richer. (Like this guy and his company.)
It’s part of the fundamental hubris of the Republican Party and the conservative movement that has been getting worse for decades. Charles P. Pierce has traced the madness infecting the Republican Party back to Ronald Reagan. From 2013:
The true hell of it, though, is that you could see this coming down through the years, all the way from Ronald Reagan's First Inaugural Address in which government "was" the problem, through Bill Clinton's ameliorative nonsense about the era of big government being "over," through the attempts to make a charlatan like Newt Gingrich into a scholar and an ambitious hack like Paul Ryan into a budget genius, and through all the endless attempts to find "common ground" and a "Third Way." Ultimately, as we all wrapped ourselves in good intentions, a prion disease was eating away at the country's higher functions. One of the ways you can acquire a prion disease is to eat right out of its skull the brains of an infected monkey. We are now seeing the country reeling and jabbering from the effects of the prion disease, but it was during the time of Reagan that the country ate the monkey brains.
And looking at 2018:
Far too many people are far too delicate about this. The Republican Party is completely mad, and it has been going in that direction for a very long time. It has been raving through all the halls of all the governments, large and small, like a lost soul with a big knife. The symptoms of the enveloping disease have been obvious for decades, ever since Ronald Reagan served up the first helping of monkey brains in 1976, when he nearly wrested the party’s nomination from Gerald Ford. It is full-blown now, and it is general throughout the Republic. The Republican Party has infected every institution with its own private insanity.
Pierce is mainly concerned with domestic politics here — but the effects on foreign policy have been just as devastating.
It’s an ‘interesting’ coincidence that so many of the NeoCons who wanted the US to get over Vietnam Syndrome never served in Vietnam. It would be tempting to start with Nixon (president 1969-1974) who sabotaged the Paris Peace Talks and pulled moves like secret bombing, but let’s go with Pierce. Starting with Reagan and not necessarily in any particular order, let’s look at some of the greatest hits of the GOP:
1981-1989 — Ronald Reagan presidency
Soviet-Afghan War December 1979 to February 1989; The U.S. did not get involved directly — but it and other partners supported resistance to the Soviet Invasion as a proxy fight against the USSR by Reagan and his Cold Warriors. The drain on Russian finances and the military was a big factor in the collapse of the Soviet Union. While a success for the West in that sense, it also was a training ground for people like Osama bin Laden. Can you say blowback?
1983 Marine Barracks Bombing. October 23, 1983 But hey — the civil war in Lebanon gave us a chance to show off the Battleship New Jersey one last time.
Operation Urgent Fury— the Grenada Invasion. 25 October 1983. Regime change the traditional US way in Central America — Caribbean.
Arms for Hostages — Iran Contra. It broke out in November 1986 — but started in 1981. Selling weapons to Iran was supposedly part of a deal to free hostages in Lebanon which became a fund raiser to arm Contra rebels in Nicaragua. Totally illegal. All of those convicted were pardoned by George H.W. Bush on his last day in office. (And let’s not forget the speculation that Reagan’s people had cut a deal with Iran over the Embassy hostages to keep Jimmy Carter from being re-elected, the October Surprise.)
1989-1993 George H.W. Bush presidency.
Operation Just Cause— the Invasion of Panama. December 1989. In which we did more regime change.
Iraq invades Kuwait 2 August 1990. The U.S. fumbled the chance to tell Iraq it would be a bad idea. The U.S. rush to repel the invasion turns out to have been based on a disinformation campaign. (There’s that Dick Cheney — what a coincidence.)
Gulf War One: Operation Desert Shield (2 August 1990 – 17 January 1991) and Operation Desert Storm (17 January 1991 – 28 February 1991) In which the U.S. puts together a coalition to A) protect the Saudis and their oil, and B) drive Iraq out of Kuwait — thus protecting authoritarian regimes with a dangerous theocratic component against another authoritarian… who had been our proxy in the Iran-Iraq War 22 September 1980 to 20 August 1988. (Why look — there’s Donald Rumsfeld.)
Notice how, among all the talk about defending freedom and spreading democracy, how much oil runs through all of the above, along with military adventurism and massive defense spending?
1993-2001 Bill Clinton presidency— Compare and Contrast:
Military and Foreign Affairs include:
Somalia 1993: a situation inherited from the previous administration ended badly; U.S. forces were withdrawn after the incident popularized as Black Hawk Down.
Rwanda 1994 After the Somalia experience, Clinton did not choose to have the U.S. intervene to stop the genocide, a decision he later regretted.
Bosnia — Herezogovina 1995 Operation Deliberate Force. U.S. and NATO airstrikes were used to stop Serbian aggression.
Khobar Towers June 25, 1996 At that time, Khobar Towers was being used as living quarters for coalition forces who were assigned to Operation Southern Watch, a no-fly zone operation in southern Iraq, as part of the Iraqi no-fly zones. Again — a legacy of the previous administration.
Iraq 1998 — Operation Desert Fox It was a four day bombing campaign in response to Iraqi hindrance of weapons inspectors.
Kosovo 1999 Operation Allied Force saw a joint air campaign with NATO that forced Yugoslavia to end ethnic cleansing in Kosovo, in response to the humanitarian crisis and the flood of refugees destabilizing Europe. Eventually Kosovo became independent, but the conflict saw many casualties and dislocation of people.
Osama bin Laden (Remember him from Afghanistan?) The Clinton administration had become aware of his role in attacks on U.S. embassies in Africa along with the rise of al-Qaeda and made several attempts to capture or kill him. Cruise missile attacks on facilities suspected to be terror bases were launched in 1998 — Operation Infinite Reach. Clinton was accused of “Wagging the Dog” by Republicans, who had impeached him. Upon the end of his second term, Clinton advised the incoming George W. Bush administration that awareness of al-Qaeda should be a high priority. September 11, 2001 demonstrated how well that message was received.
I’m not going to go into much more detail about events since 911; those events should still be recent enough for people to be able to connect dots.
To do a quick recap, George W. Bush (2001-2009) ignored urgent warnings, the U.S. suffered its worst terror attack to date, lost its collective mind, invaded Afghanistan, failed to get Osama bin Laden, and pivoted to invade Iraq on the basis of lies and disinformation. Trillions of dollars and thousands of lives later: forced rendition, black sites, torture, Freedom Fries, the Middle East more unstable than ever, neither Iraq or Afghanistan the democratic paradise envisioned by the NeoCons — and we still have troops in harms way. (And who could forget Katrina?)
Barack Obama (2009 — 2017) was able to wind things down a bit if not completely and he DID get Osama bin Laden, while also rebuilding the U.S. economy after it cratered on the GOP watch, and pushed through major healthcare reform. The Republican follow up to impeaching (but not removing) Clinton was to declare total opposition to Obama from day one and steal a Supreme Court seat while periodically shutting down the government.
And then we got Donald J. Trump.
Which gets us back to the original reason for this diary.
What’s in it for Putin? Dan K has a diary on the Recc List that reports Putin is not happy with Trump for taking out Suleimani. Russia had been working with him on arrangements in Syria with Iran to reinforce Assad. Russia is also not thrilled about the possibility of a hot war on their southern border or more instability in the region — not while they’re consolidating the regional dominance Trump has ceded to them.
That may be the case, but there is another way to look at this. Putin saw Afghanistan bleed the Soviet Union dry, discredit the military, and exacerbate every place where Soviet society fell short. It got them hit with international sanctions. The stresses that the Soviet-Afghan war put on the Soviet Union contributed to its break-up. He can see what’s happening to America. It’s not likely that Red States are going to try to go their own way as so many of the former Soviet client states did — but there’s no question that there are now plenty of people in America who would like to.
If you look at all the history laid out above from Reagan on, Republican presidents embark on military adventures based on what is essentially imperialism, toxic nationalism, and to cash in on military spending. They run up massive deficits, and then use those deficits to justify shredding the social safety net and cutting government spending on infrastructure and services. (They also deregulate and privatize like mad.)
And then they cut taxes on the rich.
Democrats struggle to come in, clean up, and try to repair the damage while trying to make things a little bit better for people - with Republicans fighting them every step of the way.
Donald Trump is heir to a rich GOP tradition, and like a stereotypical spoiled idiot heir, he’s burning through everything that’s been handed to him — in this case America.
With Trump installed as president with Russian help, not only compromised but backed by a corrupt GOP, getting the U.S. sucked into a conflict with Iran would advance Putin’s long agenda by leaps and bounds, whatever temporary inconvenience it may produce. The U.S. will be further discredited, exhausted, and going broke. Our military is being run into the ground as it is.
(The Air Force’s fleet has been worn out by years of air strikes, deferred maintenance, programs delayed by GOP government shutdowns, and years of enforcing no fly zones for just one example.)
While Trump believes it is our military that makes us a superpower [see the update below], it is America’s ability to lead an alliance of western democracies — in partnership — that is the real foundation of our power. Trump is incapable of understanding that. As an agent of chaos, Trump is the perfect catalyst to unravel all of the international arrangements that have constrained Russia — and Putin is moving into that vacuum. The damage is likely permanent; no one is going to trust the U.S. to lead the world again after Trump.
Under Trump, with McConnell’s control of the Senate, and the Tea Party, the federal government has become increasingly dysfunctional — by design. The GOP is using it to loot the country while promoting the idea that government cannot be trusted to deliver anything. (Except more war.) This will further discredit the idea of democracy and fuel the descent into authoritarianism. The GOP reliance on racism and religious bigotry to turn out their base will continue to tear this country apart. Our economy is now being propelled by deficit spending — and GOP tax cuts for the rich will only make things worse. This is how empires fall — and the GOP wants an empire under a Republican dictator, not a democratic republic when push comes to shove.
Whatever momentary inconvenience taking out Suleimani has caused Putin, in the long run he knows where this is leading the U.S. and he’s the winner...assuming Trump doesn't blow up the world.
A few suggestions to consider. What can we do differently?
The power of money in our politics is fueling a lot of this. It’s a product of the massive inequality that is making everything worse. It drives the politics of resentment. It’s why the GOP puts so much effort into fighting raising the minimum wage, pay equity, while screaming about socialism. Democrats need to convince people that their policies make their lives better, starting with their pocket books — and that it makes economic sense. Obamacare has made a difference for millions. Build on that.
The end of compulsory military service aka the draft has really enabled military adventurism. It’s much easier to send other peoples kids to war than your own — especially when you can justify it by saying “They know what they signed up for.” And so we’ve learned new words like IED, TBI, PTSD…. The GOP claims to support the troops even as they use them up.
It just might be time for a new selective service, one that enlists both males and females for national service. Serving in the armed forces would be only one option; the increase in climate emergencies (fire fighting, flood recovery, disaster relief, etc.) and the need to rebuild our infrastructure and economy is going to create a massive demand for people to do what needs to be done in service to the nation.
Get everyone off to a start with a common experience. Run everyone through the same intake centers. Give them all basic orientation talks. Have them all take the same aptitude tests, some kind of oath of service. Depending on what their choices and aptitudes are, they will end up going in different directions — but they will all be starting from the same place.
One of the things lost with the draft was that it took in a cross-section of America and broke down barriers between people. It also exposed them to experiences and opportunities they would never have had otherwise.
Something like a wealth tax could fund it; tying it to paying for college and other benefits would provide incentives to put it into effect as well as making it easier to justify making college available as a right. Serving in the military could still be voluntary, but come with more extensive benefits as an incentive.
In any case, it would give every American a direct sense of participating in government and sharing in making America better. It wouldn't need to be limited to compulsory service either — anyone should have the option of signing up at any time. To repurpose one of those pro-capitalism buzzwords, we need to make people feel like stakeholders in America.
It would also serve to reverse the machinations that have rigged the economy to make the rich richer at the expense of the public. We already have a name: the Green New Deal. Democrats need to embrace it and get better at selling it.
We need to develop a better sense of time. The joke about short attention span America isn’t really funny. What used to be journalism has morphed into entertainment. If it doesn’t draw eyeballs it doesn't happen. The internet has made seeking distraction way too easy. For those of a certain age, it’s possible to remember when morning network news shows had news readers who got the real news out there before turning things over to the fluff heads and eye candy news-’tainers. Cable news is out there 24/7 — but how much of it is talking heads filling air time with the narrative of the moment, with no context, no bigger picture? And who are those talking heads anyway?
We need to live for more than the moment. We need to get people to think longer than meeting their immediate needs and desires. We need to get them used to the idea that some problems can’t be solved overnight — but that progress is possible and the important thing is to keep moving, one step at at time, for as long as it takes. When people abandon hope, all that matters is what’s right in front of them. To abandon hope is to abandon the possibility of having a future — or working to make it happen,.
We need to look back as well as ahead. That was Obama’s biggest error — moving on from the George W. Bush era without doing the unpleasant work of holding anyone to account for the disasters of the previous 8 years. It was and is a lost learning opportunity. It has allowed Republicans to erase and rewrite history, so the same old lies are new again — and the same liars are back again. If you look at the Reagan and Bush I years, count up the cost of those pointless military adventures — and then remember that those were the critical years when we could have made a real start on climate change before it became a crisis.
The Arab Oil Embargo of 1973 should have been a massive wake up call about the dangers of relying on fossil fuels and the stability of the Middle East for maintaining world order. Jimmy Carter put solar panels on the White House: Ronald Reagan removed them. So here we are today, with Donald Trump rolling back environmental standards and going totally bonkers on wind turbines. There’s a direct line from Trump all the way back to Reagan when it comes to not getting it about the environment. The only difference is how far Republicans are willing to go now.
There are plenty of reasons to not want a war with Iran, or any of the other things the Republicans always do. I’m going to close with something from Atrios here.
No, Seriously, What Are We Doing
After the last couple of decades I have no choice but to conclude that anyone who thinks we should be engaging in continuing glorious military adventures of any kind is either a grifter, genocidal, or an idiot.
by Atrios at 12:00
218 Comments
UPDATE: Breaking from the NY Times Iran will no longer follow the nuclear deal, Iraq’s Parliament has voted to expel all coalition troops from the country, the fight against ISIS is being put on hold, and Trump is continuing to threaten Iran.
“The United States just spent Two Trillion Dollars on Military Equipment,” he said. “We are the biggest and by far the BEST in the World! If Iran attacks an American Base, or any American, we will be sending some of that brand new beautiful equipment their way … and without hesitation!”
I think, going by the Atrios comment above, we can put Trump in all three categories: grifter, genocidal, AND idiot.
